Why Europe Is Moving from Promotion to Protection
European Institute for Peace and Governance (EIPG)
For several decades following the end of the Cold War, the European Union and its member states positioned themselves as global champions of democracy promotion. European foreign policy institutions invested heavily in electoral assistance, civil society support, governance reform, and democratic institution building across Eastern Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. However, in recent years, a profound shift has taken place in European democracy support strategies. Instead of focusing primarily on exporting democratic governance abroad, European institutions have increasingly turned inward, prioritizing the protection and resilience of democratic systems within Europe itself.
This study examines the emergence of what analysts have described as the “defensive turn” in European democracy support. It explores the political, institutional, and geopolitical factors that have contributed to this shift, including democratic backsliding within Europe, the rise of populist movements, foreign interference in elections, and the growing influence of authoritarian powers in global politics.
The research argues that European democracy promotion has entered a new phase characterized by defensive strategies aimed at safeguarding democratic institutions from internal and external threats. This transformation represents a significant reorientation of European governance policy and reflects broader changes in the global political environment.
Introduction
In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, democracy promotion became a central pillar of European foreign policy. The European Union, along with various European governments and institutions, invested significant resources in supporting democratic transitions around the world. Through initiatives such as election monitoring, governance assistance programs, and support for civil society organizations, Europe sought to encourage the spread of democratic institutions and norms.
The underlying assumption of this strategy was that democracy was expanding globally. Many policymakers believed that the world was moving toward what political scientist Francis Fukuyama famously described as the “end of history,” a period in which liberal democracy would gradually become the dominant political system.
However, the past decade has challenged this assumption. Democratic institutions across Europe and beyond have faced increasing pressure from both internal and external forces. According to the international democracy watchdog Freedom House, global freedom has declined for more than fifteen consecutive years, marking what the organization calls a “democratic recession” (Freedom House, Freedom in the World Report, 2023).
This shift has forced European policymakers to reconsider the foundations of their democracy support strategies.
The Traditional Model of European Democracy Promotion
European democracy promotion historically focused on external engagement. Beginning in the 1990s, the European Union launched a wide range of initiatives aimed at strengthening democratic governance in neighboring regions.
These efforts were particularly prominent in Central and Eastern Europe, where countries transitioning from communist rule received extensive political and economic support from the EU. Democratic reforms were closely linked to the process of EU accession, creating powerful incentives for governments to adopt democratic institutions.
Beyond Europe, the EU supported democratic reforms through development programs, diplomatic initiatives, and partnerships with international organizations. Institutions such as the European Endowment for Democracy and the European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights played key roles in financing democracy promotion activities.
Political scientist Thomas Carothers has described this period as the “high tide of democracy promotion,” when Western governments believed they had both the legitimacy and the capacity to influence political systems abroad (Carothers, Journal of Democracy, 2006).
However, this optimistic period began to fade in the early twenty-first century.
The Rise of Democratic Backsliding
One of the most important factors behind the defensive turn in European democracy support has been the rise of democratic backsliding within Europe itself.
In several European countries, governments have implemented policies that critics argue weaken democratic institutions. These policies include restrictions on independent media, challenges to judicial independence, and the consolidation of executive power.
Scholars have described these developments as part of a broader trend toward illiberal democracy, a concept popularized by political scientist Fareed Zakaria. Illiberal democracies maintain electoral processes but weaken the institutional safeguards that protect democratic governance.
The European Union has struggled to respond effectively to these developments. Although mechanisms such as Article 7 of the EU Treaty allow for sanctions against member states that violate democratic principles, political divisions among EU members have limited the effectiveness of these tools.
As a result, European policymakers have increasingly recognized that democracy within Europe itself requires active protection.
External Threats to European Democracy
In addition to internal political developments, external actors have increasingly sought to influence democratic processes within Europe.
One of the most widely discussed forms of interference involves disinformation campaigns and cyber operations aimed at influencing public opinion and election outcomes. Investigations by European institutions have identified coordinated disinformation campaigns targeting political debates in several European countries.
These campaigns often exploit social media platforms to spread misleading information, amplify political polarization, and undermine trust in democratic institutions.
According to a report by the European External Action Service, foreign disinformation campaigns represent a “systematic effort to destabilize democratic societies by manipulating information ecosystems” (EEAS Disinformation Review, 2022).
Cyber attacks on electoral infrastructure have also raised concerns about the vulnerability of democratic systems to technological interference.
The Strategic Challenge of Authoritarian Influence
The defensive turn in European democracy support is also linked to the growing global influence of authoritarian powers.
Countries such as China and Russia have increasingly promoted alternative models of governance that challenge the liberal democratic order. These models emphasize state control, economic development without political liberalization, and skepticism toward Western political norms.
Authoritarian governments have also expanded their economic and political influence in regions where Europe previously played a dominant role in promoting democratic governance.
This competition has forced European policymakers to reconsider their approach to democracy promotion.
Rather than assuming that democracy will naturally expand over time, European institutions now recognize that democratic governance must compete with alternative political models.
From Promotion to Protection
The combination of internal democratic challenges and external geopolitical pressures has led to a strategic shift in European democracy support policies.
This shift can be described as a transition from democracy promotion to democratic resilience.
Instead of focusing primarily on exporting democratic governance abroad, European institutions are increasingly investing in mechanisms designed to protect democratic systems at home.
These efforts include initiatives aimed at:
- countering disinformation campaigns
- protecting electoral integrity
- strengthening independent media
- improving transparency in political financing
The European Commission has launched several programs aimed at protecting democratic processes from external interference.
According to the European Commission, strengthening democratic resilience is now considered “a core strategic priority for the future of the European Union” (European Commission Democracy Action Plan, 2021).
Implications for European Foreign Policy
The defensive turn in European democracy support has significant implications for European foreign policy.
First, it suggests that democracy promotion abroad may become more selective. European institutions may focus their efforts on regions where democratic reforms appear politically feasible.
Second, democracy support may increasingly be linked to security concerns. Protecting democratic institutions from external interference has become part of the broader strategy for safeguarding European sovereignty.
Finally, the defensive turn may encourage closer cooperation between democratic countries seeking to protect shared political values.
The shift from democracy promotion to democratic protection represents one of the most significant transformations in European governance policy since the end of the Cold War.
European institutions now operate in a global environment characterized by rising geopolitical competition, technological disruption, and increasing pressure on democratic systems.
In this environment, democracy can no longer be treated as a stable and self-sustaining political model. Instead, it requires active protection and institutional resilience.
The defensive turn in European democracy support reflects this new reality. By prioritizing democratic resilience, European policymakers hope to safeguard the foundations of democratic governance in an increasingly uncertain world.
The success of this strategy will depend on Europe’s ability to adapt its institutions, strengthen democratic norms, and respond effectively to both internal and external threats.
