By seeking to topple Iran’s hardline Islamist regime through a campaign of air and missile strikes, the United States and Israel risk reigniting the country’s long history of foreign intervention and deepening the Shi’ite Muslim cult of martyrdom. Killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening hours of this illegal war may have brought instant gratification, but it is far from certain to deliver peace or stability in the Middle East. In the short term, it will hit the world economy, raising oil and gas prices and increasing uncertainty.
However loathed Khamenei may have been for decades of repression before he was killed by Israeli bombs, he is now in the eyes of many Iranians another martyr to foreign interference. He joins nationalist Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq, toppled by a US-staged coup in 1953 after nationalising Iran’s oil resources, as well as hundreds of thousands of Iranians killed in Iraq’s Western-backed invasion in 1980, launched to contain the Islamic revolution that toppled US-backed dictator Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi.
That the Shah’s US-based son, Reza Pahlavi should now be cheering the war and presenting himself as the potential head of a democratic transition is not a case of history coming full circle. But rather Western leaders ignoring its lessons and repeating mistakes. Just as democracy was not delivered to Iraq on the wings of a B-52 bomber when a US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, there is scant prospect that it will be brought to Iranians, a sophisticated, educated society of 90 million, by cruise missiles or B-2 bombers, despite Donald Trump’s call to Iranians to rise up and reclaim their country.
Iran’s ruling system demonstrated its resilience in maintaining control after the 12-day Israeli-US war on its nuclear programme last year. It ruthlessly massacred thousands of demonstrators to crush street protests in January and ensure regime survival. Now it is showing continuity of government in responding to the US-Israeli assault and preparing Khamenei’s succession, despite sporadic public rejoicing at his death.
The surviving leadership may prove willing to make more concessions than Khamenei in negotiations over its nuclear and missile programmes, talks that Trump broke off when he chose war. He might then declare victory and halt the bombing without achieving real regime change, just as he did in Venezuela.
Iran’s regime retains a monopoly of force. The security forces have shown no sign of splitting or defecting. The opposition is disunited and disarmed. Incremental change may come from within the system, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, despite being massively targeted in the assault, seems likely to remain its backbone.
Across the wider Middle East, the war has already hit several neighbouring countries, that had pleaded with Washington to avoid military action. Iran has retaliated against US bases and allies in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Iraq, as well as hitting Israel. Tehran may yet close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil highway, sending global energy prices skywards. Whatever the outcome, this conflict is a setback for prosperity and efforts to rebrand the Gulf as a high-tech oasis of stability.
Paul Taylor is a Senior Visiting Fellow in the Europe in the World Programme at the European Policy Centre.
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