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Can the European Union Break Its Strategic Dependence on the United States and China?

The European Institute for Peace and Governance (EIPG)

Digital sovereignty has emerged as one of the European Union’s defining strategic priorities in 2026. Once viewed primarily as a technological ambition, it has evolved into a central pillar of European security, economic resilience, and geopolitical autonomy. The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, semiconductor technologies, cybersecurity threats, and digital infrastructure has exposed Europe’s dependence on foreign technologies and external providers, particularly from the United States and China.

Recent geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, cyberattacks, and growing technological competition between Washington and Beijing have accelerated European efforts to reduce strategic dependencies across critical sectors. The European Union now views digital infrastructure as essential to its long-term sovereignty, placing digital policy alongside defense, energy security, and industrial competitiveness as core components of European strategic autonomy.

This paper examines Europe’s growing pursuit of digital sovereignty, the challenges facing this strategy, and its implications for the future balance of power in the international system.

Introduction

The twenty-first century is increasingly defined by technological competition.

Unlike previous geopolitical eras dominated by territorial expansion or energy resources, today’s global influence depends upon control of data, digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, advanced semiconductor manufacturing, cloud computing, quantum technologies, and cybersecurity.

Europe has become one of the world’s largest digital markets, yet many of the technologies underpinning its economy originate outside the European Union.

American companies dominate cloud services, digital platforms, operating systems, and much of the global AI ecosystem. China, meanwhile, plays an increasingly influential role in telecommunications equipment, advanced manufacturing, battery production, and critical supply chains.

This growing dependence has fundamentally altered European strategic thinking.

Digital infrastructure is no longer viewed as merely an economic sector; it has become an issue of national and continental security.

From Economic Dependence to Strategic Vulnerability

For many years, European policymakers regarded globalization as a source of economic efficiency.

Digital services could be imported from wherever they were cheapest or most innovative, while manufacturing increasingly shifted to global supply chains.

However, successive crises—including the COVID-19 pandemic, semiconductor shortages, cyberattacks, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and intensifying US-China technological rivalry—demonstrated that excessive dependence on external suppliers carries significant strategic risks.

The interruption of semiconductor production disrupted European automobile manufacturing. Cyberattacks targeted public institutions and critical infrastructure.

Cloud dependence raised concerns regarding data protection and foreign jurisdiction.

European policymakers increasingly concluded that technological dependence could quickly become geopolitical vulnerability.

Artificial Intelligence and the New Balance of Power

Artificial intelligence has become one of the principal drivers of Europe’s digital sovereignty agenda. Large language models, autonomous systems, predictive analytics, defense applications, healthcare technologies, and industrial automation increasingly depend upon AI capabilities.

Yet Europe remains significantly behind both the United States and China in several key areas, including large-scale computing infrastructure, advanced AI investment, and commercial deployment.

Recognizing these challenges, the European Union has intensified investment in AI research, high-performance computing, and regulatory frameworks intended to support innovation while protecting fundamental rights.

Rather than attempting to replicate the American or Chinese model, Europe seeks to establish a third approach that combines technological competitiveness with democratic governance. This balance may become Europe’s comparative advantage.

The Semiconductor Challenge

Semiconductors have become the backbone of the modern economy. Virtually every advanced technology—from smartphones and electric vehicles to satellites, medical equipment, and defense systems—depends upon secure semiconductor supply chains.

Europe currently manufactures only a limited share of the world’s most advanced chips.

The European Chips Act represents one of the Union’s most ambitious industrial initiatives, seeking to strengthen domestic manufacturing capacity, attract private investment, and reduce strategic dependence on Asian production hubs.

The objective extends beyond industrial competitiveness. Semiconductor resilience has become an essential component of European economic security.

Cloud Infrastructure and Data Sovereignty

Cloud computing represents another area of growing strategic concern. A significant proportion of European public institutions, private enterprises, and research organizations rely upon cloud services provided by non-European companies.

While these services offer advanced technological capabilities, they also raise complex questions regarding data governance, legal jurisdiction, cybersecurity, and strategic resilience.

European initiatives promoting sovereign cloud infrastructure aim to ensure that sensitive government information, healthcare records, defense communications, and critical industrial data remain protected under European legal frameworks.

Data sovereignty increasingly forms the foundation of digital sovereignty.

Cybersecurity as National Security

Europe experiences thousands of cyber incidents every year targeting governments, hospitals, financial institutions, transportation systems, and energy infrastructure.

Cybersecurity is therefore no longer solely an IT issue. It has become an integral component of national security.

Hybrid threats increasingly combine cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, economic coercion, and digital espionage.

State and non-state actors exploit technological vulnerabilities to influence political processes, disrupt essential services, and steal intellectual property.

Strengthening cyber resilience has consequently become one of the European Union’s highest strategic priorities.

Strategic Competition with the United States and China

Europe’s pursuit of digital sovereignty should not be interpreted as technological isolation.

Rather, it reflects an effort to reduce excessive dependence while maintaining international cooperation.

The United States remains Europe’s closest technological partner. At the same time, American technology companies dominate many sectors of Europe’s digital economy.

China represents both an indispensable trading partner and an increasingly important strategic competitor.

Balancing these relationships requires Europe to strengthen its own technological capabilities without undermining open markets or international innovation.

Digital sovereignty therefore seeks resilience rather than protectionism.

Economic Opportunities

Greater digital independence offers substantial economic benefits. Investment in European semiconductor manufacturing, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, cybersecurity, cloud computing, and digital infrastructure can stimulate innovation, create high-skilled employment, and strengthen industrial competitiveness.

Small and medium-sized enterprises may also benefit from greater access to European digital ecosystems that reduce dependence upon external platforms.

Universities and research institutions would similarly gain from expanded investment in advanced technologies.Digital sovereignty is therefore both a strategic necessity and an economic opportunity.

Challenges Ahead

Despite growing political momentum, Europe faces considerable obstacles. Developing competitive semiconductor manufacturing requires enormous financial investment.

Artificial intelligence depends upon computing capacity that remains concentrated outside Europe.

Fragmented national markets complicate digital integration. Regulatory complexity sometimes slows innovation.

Finally, Europe must maintain openness while pursuing greater strategic resilience.

Achieving digital sovereignty without undermining competitiveness represents one of the Union’s greatest policy challenges.

Policy Recommendations

The European Union should continue expanding investment in strategic digital infrastructure while strengthening cooperation among member states on research, innovation, and industrial policy.

Greater support should be directed toward semiconductor manufacturing, artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, cybersecurity, and quantum technologies.

Public-private partnerships should accelerate technological commercialization while ensuring compliance with European democratic values.

Digital education and workforce development should become priorities to address growing shortages of highly skilled professionals.

Finally, Europe’s external partnerships should focus on building resilient digital supply chains with trusted democratic partners.

Conclusion

Digital sovereignty has become one of Europe’s defining strategic projects.

In an increasingly fragmented international system, technological dependence is no longer viewed simply as an economic issue but as a matter of geopolitical resilience and national security.

Europe’s ability to secure critical technologies, strengthen digital infrastructure, and promote responsible innovation will shape its economic competitiveness and international influence for decades to come.

The challenge is not to disengage from globalization, but to ensure that Europe possesses the technological capabilities necessary to protect its interests while remaining an open, innovative, and democratic actor in the global digital economy.

The future of European sovereignty will increasingly be determined not only by borders and military capabilities, but by algorithms, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and the secure management of data. In the digital age, technological independence has become inseparable from strategic autonomy.

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